global warming and extinction, is there a model?

Hans Henderickx hans.henderickx at PANDORA.BE
Tue Sep 27 13:11:57 CDT 2005


Dear Taxacom members,

My collegue Jeff Hoeyberhgs and I discussed the global warming and the
effect on the biodiversity. In the media possible mass extinction is
predicted without accuracy and there are lots of surrounding articles,
usually alarming, all over the internet (f.i. worlds plants under
pressure: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2385591.stm).
As we can see very near in Belgium, 'Sudden Oak Death' (Quercus robus),
claimed as a result of global warming, has increased dramatically in only
2 years of time.

In fact we find a lot of guessing work in the literature but no precise
model that, with the known parameters, predicts how fast global warming
and it's effects are proceeding. Therefore several basic questions remain
unsolved, as 'is there time to stop the proces by mass switching to
nuclear energy' and 'does it still makes any sense to stop deforestation
and start a fast and instant global forestation project' and perhaps most
important of all, why has no serious action been taken yet, in spite of
the numerous warnings?

Can anyone help us to find references concerning a more precise global
model with data, that simulates this mechanism and allows more accurate
predictions, or tell us why there isn't any?

Hans and Jeff




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