# [Taxacom] Random taxonomy

JF Mate aphodiinaemate at gmail.com
Fri Nov 29 09:26:10 CST 2013

```If I remember correctly, dependent probabilities in this case would be
1/n!. So the p of picking the correct label at random for the first
box is 1/50, for 2 boxes back to back it becomes 1/(50*49) For all 50
p= 1/50! = 3.0414093e+64. However the exact conditions of the game
will change the results (is it 1 out of 50 tries or on the first try,
or after X tries...)

On 29 November 2013 11:24, Knut Rognes <knut at rognes.no> wrote:
> Dear Taxacomers,
>
>
>
> I have a statistical problem.
>
>
>
> Consider 50 black boxes, within each is a specimen of fly. Each fly has been
> identified by someone, its name written on the inside of the box, but this
> is invisible to you. You cannot peek inside. Each fly belong to one of 50
> possible species.
>
>
>
> You have at your disposal the 50 possible species names for these flies,
> each name printed on an adhesive label, the supply of printed labels for
> each name is limitless.
>
>
>
> Here is the game: you affix a random label on the outside of a random box.
>
>
>
> Now the problem: What is the likelihood that you put a correct label on the
> box, i.e. that the name on the label matches the identity of the fly within?
>
>
>
> Knut Rognes
>
> Oslo, Norway
>
>
>
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```