[Taxacom] COVID-19 disease (and "deadliest genera")

Kenneth Kinman kinman at hotmail.com
Wed Mar 25 13:05:39 CDT 2020


Hi All,
      I clearly underestimated the numbers of deaths that the world would probably suffer from COVID-19 disease, especially in Spain and Italy.  The U.S. will hopefully fare better (than southern Europe) with a lower rate of multi-generational households and lower rates of smoking.  In any case, I am now provisionally adding genus Betacoronavirus to the end of my list ("deadliest genera") as a temporary listing for 2020.  See Below.   We can hope that it will not be repeated in 2021 (with treatments and vaccines coming by then), and I will then take it back off of the list.
      Hopefully Prince Charles of England will continue to have a mild case of COVID-19, and that it would help reduce the panic and over-reactions.  I certainly do not believe COVID-19 could kill 1.1-1.2 million in the U.S. (the following weblink shows a prediction published on 16 March 2020:  "even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.").   Predictions during Ebola crisis also were also extremely pessimistic.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

                                             Deadliest genera to humans in the 21st Century

Homo via bad dietary choices (especially those derived from Saccharomyces, Bos, Zea, Saccharum, and/or Beta, i.e. excess consumption of sugars, alcohol, and/or red meat) (resulting in over 13,000,000 human deaths per year).
Homo via Nicotiana, causing cancers from tobacco smoking and chewing (over 5,000,000 human deaths per year).
Homo (humans killing over 400,000 humans per year, plus about 800,000 suicides, totaling over 1,200,000 deaths per year).
Mycobacterium, especially M. tuberculosis (over 1,200,000 human deaths per year).
Lentavirus, causing HIV infections (over 900,000 deaths per year).
Streptococcus, causing pneumonia and streptococcal meningitis (over 500,000 deaths per year).
Plasmodium (Anopheles the vector) causing malaria (about 400,000 deaths per year).
Alphainfluenzavirus, causing flu (290,000-645,000 human deaths per year).
Treponema, causing syphilis (about 100,000 deaths per year, plus over 200,000 stillbirths and neonatal deaths; total over 300,000 deaths).
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Rotavirus, causing enteritis (over 150,000 human deaths per year).
Salmonella, causing typhoid fever (over 100,000 human deaths per year).
Neisseria, causing meningococcal meningitis (about 75,000 human deaths per year).
Haemophilus, causing type b meningitis (about 70,000 human deaths per year).
Entamoeba, causing amoebic dysentery (50,000-100,000 humans per year).
Clostridium, causing tetanus (about 60,000 human deaths per year).
Norovirus (over 50,000 human deaths per year; with some estimates as high as 200,000).
Cryptosporidium, causing cryptosporidiosis (over 50,000 human deaths per year).
Aedes (carrying several viral diseases) (over 50,000 human death per year).
Schistosoma, causing schistosomiasis (about 50,000 deaths; about 200,000 humans in the year 2000; but treatment programs have reduced the number).
Bordetella, causing whooping cough (about 50,000 human deaths per year).
Shigella, causing shigellosis (about 50,000 human deaths per year).
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Temporary? addition:
Betacoronavirus, causing COVID-19 disease (probably at least 50,000 deaths in 2020)


________________________________
From: Taxacom <taxacom-bounces at mailman.nhm.ku.edu> on behalf of Kenneth Kinman via Taxacom <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>
Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 9:02 AM
To: taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu <taxacom at mailman.nhm.ku.edu>
Subject: Re: [Taxacom] covariates for corona virus virulence (and "deadliest genera")

Hi All,
        I am beginning the think that the death toll (from COVID-19) may indeed reach 20,000 this year.  The total number of infections could be about 2,000,000, which would agree with Fauci's estimate of a 1% death rate.   I would think that the most reliable numbers are probably from South Korea (lots of testing there) which indicate a death rate of 1% or less.
       I am wondering what India (with a population well over a billion) is doing right to keep their numbers so low (only 81 cases and only one death).   Many of those cases are connected to Italian tourists.  Tourism (especially airplanes and cruise ships) seems to be the major cause of the worldwide spread.   But I still think that the panic has probably done more harm than good.   In the long run, it could divert funds from fighting diseases which cause far more deaths.
                            ----------Ken



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